RECENT PREDICTIONS

OVERALL
MONTH

09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96

TOTAL:
PROBABILITY

80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)

79.29%
PREDICTED

4.0
5.5
7.0
9.5
5.0
4.5
5.0
5.0
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.5
4.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
6.0
4.0
6.5
4.5

110.5
HITS

3.0
2.5
5.5
7.5
3.0
1.5
3.5
3.0
4.5
3.0
3.5
4.5
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
5.5
2.0

73.0
PERCENTAGE

94%
57%
105%
105%
86%
42%
82%
75%
94%
75%
97%
102%
47%
64%
71%
83%
94%
89%
100%
106%
56%

83%

#1 San Jose
MONTH

09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96

TOTAL:
PROBABILITY

80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)


PREDICTED

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

25.0
HITS

0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

11.5
PERCENTAGE

00%
00%
133%
00%
00%
00%
118%
00%
00%
63%
63%
63%
00%
00%
118%
00%
125%
133%
133%
00%
00%

58%

#2 Los Angeles
MONTH

09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96

TOTAL:
PROBABILITY

80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)


PREDICTED

1.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.5

35.5
HITS

1.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
2.0
0.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
1.5

31.5
PERCENTAGE

125%
133%
133%
133%
143%
42%
118%
125%
125%
125%
125%
125%
125%
00%
59%
125%
63%
00%
133%
125%
125%

112%

#3 Washington/Oregon
MONTH

09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96

TOTAL:
PROBABILITY

80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)


PREDICTED

1.0
1.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

24.0
HITS

1.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.5

14.0
PERCENTAGE

125%
00%
00%
133%
00%
125%
00%
125%
63%
63%
63%
63%
63%
59%
59%
63%
125%
00%
67%
125%
63%

74%

#4 Worldwide
MONTH

09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96

TOTAL:
PROBABILITY

80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)


PREDICTED

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
1.0

25.5
HITS

1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.5
1.0
0.0
2.5
0.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
0.5
3.0
0.0

16.0
PERCENTAGE

125%
63%
67%
00%
143%
00%
59%
00%
125%
00%
125%
125%
00%
118%
00%
125%
63%
133%
67%
125%
00%

79%
Explanation
Earthquakes of .1M within windows score .5 Hits. Earthquakes of proper magnitude which fall within hours + or - score .5 Hits. Earthquakes of 3+M which are within the window and are the greatest within the month score .5 Hits. Earthquakes exceeding the minimum magnitude but just outside the region score .5 Hits.
Multiple earthquakes within a window score 1 Hit and register 1 prediction, or .5 Hits and .5 predictions.

FORMULA: (HITS / PREDICT) / PROBABILITY

SITEMASTER'S NOTE: Scoring of close calls was done by me, in a way that I deemed as fair. If you have any difficulty with the method, please email me, Will Fletcher with your concerns. Thank you.

Talk to Jim Berkland

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sitemaster Will Fletcher