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Predictions for June 12-19, 2010 Seismic Window
Contributed by job   
Saturday, 12 June 2010

The Seismic Window of April 28-May 5, 2010 was the last one for six months to be associated with the full Moon. The new Moon takes over the role of the monthly Primary Window until the lunar eclipse of December 21st. Meanwhile readers should understand that quakes that I do not actually predict may still fit the Seismic Window Theory. One such example was the 7.2M this year on May 27, the day of the Full Moon, as shown here on page one. During the Primary Window we had the following results:


(1) For Northern California a 3.3M quake struck near Cantua Creek on May 26, which was two days early and 0.2M low, scoring 64%. Closer was the 3.5M on May 27th at The Geysers, scoring 90%.


(2) For Southern California it was hard to miss, as the Calexico quake aftershocks have continued since the Easter 7.2M. Prominent were quakes near Ocotillo (4.7M on 4/27); Seeley quakes of (4.6M on 4/29, plus 4.7M & 4.8M on 5/8); Santa Rosa I. (3.4M on 5/3), and a 4.8M near Maricopa on 5/8/10. The fully qualified quake was a non-aftershock near Trona (3.7M on 5/4) which scored 100%)


(3) For the Northwest there was a non-scoring 4.6M near Vancouver Island on May 6th, but just two days late was a significant swarm off the coast of Yachats, Oregon on May 7th. Those included quakes of 5.1, 4.4, 4.1, 4.3, 3.4 and 4.1M, which scored 80%.


(4) Globally, there were no major earthquakes since the time of the last Full Moon when the 7.2M (#4) hit Mexicalli on Easter and a 7.7M (#5) hit Sumatra on April 6th. Another large quake on April 11th struck the Solomon Islands, but it was quickly downgraded from 7.0M to 6.8M, below the major level. The strongest scoring quakes for the May window were a 6.9M in the Ryukyu Is. on April 26th (score 80%) and a 6.7Ms on May 30th as reported by the Swiss in the Behring Sea (Score 70%)

The Summary for the May window is .90 +1.00 + .80 + .80 = 350/4 = 87.5% success.


Other notable quakes were 6.3M in Chile and 6.3M in Sumatra. Typically, a 6+M quake occurs every three days, so there was no great concentration of quakes at this time.




As previously mentioned, the Seismic Window of June 12-19, 2010 will include the new Moon syzygy of June 12th. Perigee will follow in three days and the combination will produce 8.1-ft. tides at the Golden Gate every day from June 13 to 15, the greatest tidal ranges in three months. With 80% confidence, expect the following quakes:

(1) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees of Mt. Diablo (Lat 37.9N; Lon. 121.9W)

(2) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W)

(3) 3.5-6.5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.

(4) 7.0+M major quake globally, most likely in the Pacific Ring of Fire.


October Earthquakes
Contributed by job   
Thursday, 15 October 2009
“There is no time like the present to start to remember the past.”………………JOB



Hello Folks,

Welcome to the shaky month of October. I note that this issue’s number matches U-238. Not only is it one of the three most seismically active months of the year (along with March and April), it follows the autumnal equinox, a time of increased gravitational stresses. There is no better source for this information than the publication by oceanographer Fergus Wood in his masterwork, THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES (NOAA, 1978. [p. 150). He wrote:


“Thus, at times close to the equinoxes, the Sun and Moon are in almost the same declination plane (i.e., approximately 0-degrees) as the Earth’s Equator. When syzygy occurs near the dates of the equinoxes ---because of the nearly coplanar alignments in both declination and right ascension resulting---the Sun’s semidiurnal component of gravitational force will then add an extra 27 percent to the lunar force ((my emphasis) to provide a greater amplification of the Earth’s tides. The tides resulting are known as equinoctial tides.


Casual readers need not concern yourselves with the geometric details or unfamiliar terms, but focus on the bold type, which is most important.


I recall a front page article about 25 years ago in the San Jose MERCURY, in which a government geologist expounded on a March/April concentration of earthquakes in the Bay Area. The conclusion was that it was related to the end of the rainy season, which was an attractive hypothesis except it did not mention the equally potent earthquake month of October, which follows the dry season in California. It should be an obvious consideration that the vernal equinox in late March and the autumnal equinox in late September can better explain the boost in tidal forces associated with equinoxes, along with the fact that half of the damaging Bay Area quakes have occurred in just one-quarter of the time available (March/April/October.)


In the two weeks since the last equinox (Sept. 23rd) there has been a flurry of strong earthquakes, three with tsunami. (6.4M) Jalisco, Mexico: (8.0M) Samoa Islands: Sumatra (7.6, 6.8M): (6.1M) Tonga; (6.7M) Celebes Sea; (7.8M, 7.3M, 6.8M) Vanuatu; (7.7, 7.2, 6.9M) Santa Cruz Islands; All quakes were in the Pacific Ring of Fire and the expected number of major global events of 7+M would be one every 25 days, not five in 15 days. Let us continue to keep score.

Predictions for July 2--9
Contributed by JOB   
Tuesday, 14 July 2009

The Seismic Window of June 20-27, 2009 was a good one, but not a great one.

It was remarkable that no major quakes have occurred thru July 8, 2009, with the last one being the 7.3M offshore from Honduras last May 28th, during the May Seismic Window. Prior to that one was the 7.6M in the Tonga Islands on March 19th, so that we are in the midst of a Seismic freeze, with a total to date of only six major events so far this year. This compares with expected annual frequencies of about 15 major quakes, so we have some catching up to do.


What is important to consider is that there is a widespread misconception that earthquakes are increasing over the years. The same myth surrounds the generation of hurricanes. You remember that the devastation of Katrina was followed by many official forecasts that hurricane activity would be increasing. Yet the numbers have actually diminished. What about all of those predictions about the solar cycle and increased sunspots and solar storms? Instead we are seeing an almost unprecedented quiet Sun. Where is the global warming? The Northeastern USA is wondering where the summer has gone. What about that June snowstorm in Minnesota?

Mother Nature can be so fickle……….but she sure is interesting.


1. 3.8M The Geysers 6/30 70% hit.
2. 4.1M Catalina Island, June 19, 2009 90% hit3.

4.1M Catalina Island, June 19, 2009 3.8M off the coast of Oregon, June 28, 2009. 90% hit.4. 6.7M New Ireland, June 23, 2009. 70% hit



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