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Predictions for July. June Resultrs Print E-mail
Contributed by job   
Wednesday, 25 June 2008
LAST MONTH’S  EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of June 1-8th was replete with earthquakes, many in unusual places.  All it lacked was a 7.0+M quake,  but close to the minimum score was the 6.6M quake in Southern Greece that killed at least two people and injured hundreds.  It hit on the last day of the June Window.  No major quakes occurred in the world since the 7.9-8.0M Chinese quake on the last day of the May Window.  (As I complete this July Issue of SYZYGY the next major quake occurred, striking Honshu, Japan on June 13th.)  The USGS determination of 6.8M would leave it just 0.2M shy of major status.  Let us examine what happened during the June Window compared with my predicitons
 
(1)  There were widely felt  quakes of 4.1 and 4.0M at The Geysers on May 29th.  These were three days early for a score
of 70%; however, on June 3rd an even more widely event was centered on the Green Valley Fault, southwest of Napa.
It was felt by many people in Sonoma Valley, but I regret to say I missed it.  I was at a lively dinner for docents at the Bouverie Nature Preserve when my earthquake belt indicator sounded and revealed that a 3.9M had struck about 30 miles away at 7:29 p.m.   I happily announced to many in the crowd that the quake I had predicted in the newsletter I had just handed out had already struck.  I called it "my kind of quake" not big enough to hurt, but big enough to grab your attention."
(SCORE: 100%) for my 140 mile circle around Mt. Diablo.  Just three days later there was another 100% hit right next to Mt. Diablo, when the town of Alamo (remember it) was jolted by a pair of quakes measuring 3.5 and 3.0M.  The interrupted swarm at Verdi, Nevada resumed with jolts of 3.9 and 3.6M on June 8th, about 154 miles east of Mt. Diablo.
They were worth 80-90% in my scoring system as they were ten percent beyond my 140 mile limit.

2)  For the Circle of interest around Los Angeles, there was a lot of minor activity, including a numerous swarm near the south end of the Salton Sea near a geothermal area.  The largest of 3.2M on June 1st was good for a rating of 70%.  The next days there were quakes of 3.0M (too weak to score) near El Centro and Idylwild; however, Mexicali came through with a 3.8M on June 7th for a score of 100%.
3)  There was no suspense regarding the Washington/Oregon prediction as a 4.7M shaker was centered on the oceanic ridge off the coast of Oregon on June 1st.for a satisfying score of 100%.  It would be just fine with me if all of the Pacific Coast quakes were less than 5.0M and stayed well to the west of the coastline.
4) The prediction for a global quake of at least 7.0M failed to produce even a 6.7M event, although the destructive 6.6M quake hit southern Greece on June 8th   Also a mid-Indian Ocean quake of 6.6M struck on May 30th.  (Score: 00%)
Thus the total of the four predictions for June were 100+100+100+00 = 300/4= 75% , in keeping with my 34-year average of three out of four.  (Chance would allow me little more than one out of four.) 
I would like to stress that my predictions are like suggesting that if you are going to drive to the Sierras at Christmas time, you had better carry skiis.  There is no guarantee of a snow storm, but the potential is relatively high at that time.
Knowing that an 6.0M quake hits globally every three days on average, look at the following concentration in and around the prime June Seismic Window:

(6.2M) Iceland, May 29;  (6.6M Mid-Indian Ocean, May 30;  (6.0) Philippines 5/31;  (6.0M) Banda Sea, June 01;   (6.4M) MacQuarrie Is., June 03;  (6.3M) Solomon Is., June 03;  (6.1, 6.3M)  Flores Is., June 03; (6.3M) Hokkaido, Japan, June 04;  (6.0M Banda Sea, June 6;  (6.6M) So. Greece June 08);  
During those eleven days from May 29-June 08, there were eleven strong quakes of 6.0-6.6M, rather than the expected number of  three or four.  Blame tidal forces, and look to your own local phenomena to determine if your area might be  "under the gun."


 

 

PREDICTIONS FOR JULY

The Seismic Window of July 1-8, 2008 is based upon the new Moon of July 2nd, just 28 hours after a close perigee.  This time separation that I call “Synchroneity” comes within 3 hours of constituting a Perigean Spring Tide.  Even so the tidal range of 8.9 feet on July 3-4 is one of the maximum possible at the Golden Gate, and the maximum daily change in range of 1.2 feet is one of the three greatest this year (June, July and December.) Expect one or more quakes with the following parameters:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W)
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W)
(3)  3.5-6.5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) 7.0+M major quake globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire where most big quakes strike.
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