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Dec. Results/Jan 2008 Predictions Print E-mail
Contributed by job   
Wednesday, 16 January 2008
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of December 21-28, 2007 was the third of the closing months of the year to have extremely high earthquake-prone conditions.  It lived up to expectations except in my own home country of central and northern California, where many quakes did indeed occur, but only one reached the minimum scoring level of 3.2M, although at least two others measured a preliminary 3.0+M level.   I must say I was surprised, as we had 9.0-ft. tides, the highest of the year, and all three of the major tide-raising forces, syzygy, perigee and perihelion.  The January Window is only slightly less likely for seismicity.  As I write this on January 5th, there have been two 6.5M quakes near Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia, and a 6.2M near Greece.  However, there have been no 7.0+ M quakes since the 7.2M near the west end of the Aleutian Islands chain on December 19th.
On December 9, 2007 the day of the new Moon, there was a 7.8M quake in the Fiji Islands.  This was the 17th quake that exceeded 7.0M during the year.  Number 18 occurred on December 19th, which was two days before my Primary Window opened, but it still scored 80%.  This total has not been exceeded since the 21 major events in the year 2000, but there has been no progressive increase, contrary to popular opinion.
 
Here are the results of predicted quakes for December:
 (1)  3.4M near the Geysers less than 40 minutes before the Window closed on December 28th.  This was the right time and place and only 0.1M low and thus scored 90%.  Other notable Bay Area quakes measured 3.1M (east of San Jose on Dec. 21st) and at the Pinnacles on Dec.27th.
(2)    (4.0M) near Big Bear Lake on December 19th.  This was two days early but correct for place and magnitude for a score of 80%.
(3)    (4.4M) had an Oregon address (120 miles off the coast) that occurred on December 23rd, which was correct for time, place and magnitude for a score of 100%.  A smaller event of 4.0M struck the same area the next day and was also correct for time, place and magnitude.
(4)    (7.2M hit the western Aleutians in the Pacific Ring of Fire on December 19th.  This was the 18th and final major quake in 2007, and it was two days early for a score of 80%.
Other strong quakes during the Window were the 6.4M in New Guinea on December 22nd, a 6.5M in the Aleutians on Dec. 26th; and a 6.0M at Honshu, Japan on Dec.25th
The total score for December was 90 +  80 + 100 +  80=  350/4 =87.5%.
 
PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY
The Seismic Window for January 20-27, 2008 just missed including the close perigee of Jan. 19th.  This was separated by a 76 hour synchroneity from the first Full Moon of the year on Jan. 22nd.  (Will there be a Martin Luther King day quake on the day of the maximum tides on Jan. 21st)  The daily range of Golden Gate tides will not be so high again until May 6th.
At Puget Sound the maximum tides of 15.3 ft. will occur on Jan. 22, and will reach 15.7 ft. in May.   Based upon these criteria I make the following predictions, with 80% confidence for the January 20-27, 2008 Seismic Window:
(1)   Within 140 miles (2-degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W) there will be at least one quake of 3.5-6.5M.
(2)    Within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W) there will be at least one quake of 3.5-6.5.  (my expectation for a 6.0+M in SoCal  during 2007 failed, but it is even more overdue now.)
(3)    With an address of Oregon or Washington there will be at least one quake of 3.5-6.0M.
(4)    A major 7.0M+ quake will occur globally, probably in the Pacific Ring of Fire.
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