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August Predictions |
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Contributed by JOB
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Thursday, 09 August 2007 |
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of July 12-19, 2007 was rather impressive. It included the second strongest quake
in the Bay Area so far this year. Also two strong quakes of 6.8M struck western Japan and there has
been nothing more powerful in the world since last April 1st, when the Solomon Islands were wracked
with a great quake of 8.1M. Also there were a number of earthquakes in unusual places, as we shall see.
For the predicted areas, here are the results for July 12-19
For NorCal there was a 4.2M quake less than 5 hours after my window closed at midnight on the 19th.
It was centered on the Hayward Fault near Oakland and lasted almost 10 seconds, with a maximum
intensity of VI. It was felt in Santa Rosa, San Francisco, Modesto, and San Jose, with most of the
energy concentrated toward the north where there was abundant damage to shelved goods. This
prediction scored 90%.
(1) Also scoring 90% was the 3.8M at The Geysers a few hours later. A 3.2M at the Geysers was on
July 18, which was the right time but 0.3M low, for a score of 70%.
(2) In SoCal the only scoring quake was the 3.4M at Barstow on July 21. This was two days late (80%)
and 0.1M low (90%) for a combined score of .80x.90 = 72%.
(3) For Washington/Oregon there was a 3.3M at Canby, OR on July 11th, a day early and 0.2M short for
a score of .90 x..80 = 72%.
(4) For the Ring of Fire prediction, on July 15th there were two quakes of 6.8M along the west
coast of Japan, with ten people killed. The first did some damage to Niigata including to the
largest nuclear plant in the world, which had a fire, with some release of radioactive cooling
water. There was some official confusion about the damage, but the government shut the
facility down until it could be declared safe again. The quakes were in the middle of the
Seismic Window and 0.2M low, although early reports indicated that the Niigata quake
exceeded 7.0M. If we use the current magnitude determinations, my worldwide prediction
scored at least 80%.
(5) My MOSS prediction is unscored but it hit perfectly with a 5.1M in northern Greece on July 17th.
Also adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea was the 4.7M on the same day in the Adriatic Sea.
The average score for the 4 solid predictions was 90+72+72+80= 314/4= 77.9%
Also noteworthy were New York quakes of 3.0M (July 19) and 3.1M (July 24). Nevada had quakes
of 3.6 (Alamo, July 16), and 3.5M (Reno, July 27). Of special concern is what is going on off the
Coast of Oregon beginning on July 26th. Within the next two days more than 10 quakes of 4.0- 5.1M
have hit the axial seamount area, suggesting renewed sub-sea volcanic activity on the ridge.
PREDICTIONS FOR AUGUST
The Seismic Window of August 11-18, 2007 is based on the New Moon of August 12, the routine
perigee (229,426 mi.) on August 4th and the maximum 7.4 ft. tides at the Golden Gate on August 11th.
Considering these factors I am predicting, with 75% confidence, that there will be one or more earthquakes
With the following parameters:
(1) Within 140 miles (2-degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W) a 3.5-6.5M earthquake.
(2) Within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0N) a 3.5-6.5M earthquake.
(3) With an epicentral address of Washngton or Oregon, a 3.5-6.5M earthquake.
(4) Globally, a major (7+M) earthquake. Especially within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80%
of the world’s stronger earthquakes occur. This year only four have met this magnitude level.
AFTERSHOCKS
On July 13, 2007 we had Golden Gate tides of 7.4 feet, almost twice normal.. Those were the highest
tides we will see until October, and, the quakes were pretty impressive. However, let me remind you
about upcoming tides in the last three months of this year, especially in December when the Golden Gate
tidal range of 9.0 feet will be within 0.2 ft. of the maximum possible. The last time we were subjected
to the maximum tidal force in December 2003, when the killer 6.5M earthquake hit San Simeon in
California and then 20,000+ died in Bam, Iran.
This is the last time this year that my Seismic Window incorporates the New Moon. Next month the perigee
of the Moon is only 30 hours from the full stage and the tides will exceed those at the time of the New Moon.
Even this month I was tempted to go with the Full Moon as there will be a perfect syzygy on August 28th
when the Moon will be eclipsed. In fact this eclipse will be the first “dark moon” since 2004, because the Moon will be centered within the shadow of the Earth.
With all of the talk about “End Times” and with the Mayan calendar ending in 2012, what lies in our future?
In my second year of college I was president of Vitae Lampada, a poetry club, where I wrote:
GOD SPEAKS TO MAN
“NOW WHERE ARE YOU GOING, MY WEE LITTLE MAN?”
I’m headed for nowhere as fast as I can.
“AND HOW WILL YOU GET THERE, IF I MAY INQUIRE?”
By going this same way until I retire.“
”SO, WHAT WILL YOU BE IF YOU DO AS YOU PLAN?”
Why, simply a dead little wee little man.
by job
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