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Predictions for July 2007 Print E-mail
Contributed by JOB   
Monday, 09 July 2007
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of June 12-19, 2007 included the highest tidal forces in two years, and the day of the most extreme 8.7 foot tidal range at the Golden Gate on June 15th was also the day of 582 epicenters the most ever shown on the USGS earthquake map of California/Nevada. 

June 12th was especially active and featured a moderate quake at Mammoth Lakes that was first reported as a 5.1, but lowered to 4.6 within an hour.  It was followed by several aftershocks, the strongest measuring 3.6M.  These epicenters were 168 miles East of Mt. Diablo, which was beyond the 144 miles required for a 100% hit, and beyond the 154 miles for a 90% hit.  However, it was within the 168 miles for an 80% score for the strongest northern California quake during the Window.
1)      4.6-5.1M near Mammoth Lakes on June 12th.  100x.80x100= 80% score for NorCal

2)      3.5M San Clemente Is on June 12.  100x100x100=100% score for SoCal.
3)      3.9M Maupin, Oregon on June 14.  100x00x100= 100% score for Washington/Oregon
4)      6.8-7.1M West Coast Guatemala, June 12. 100x100x.80=80% score for Ring of Fire.

5)      MOSS prediction for 6.0+ in Central America. 100x00x100 =100% non-scoring.

Overall record:  80+100+100+80=360 / 4  = 90% for June 2007

Other earthquakes of interest during June were on June 10 with a 3.9M near Joseco, Nevada; a 3.2M at Mt. St. Helens on June 15; a 5.9M on June 15th near Lake Abert in the Congo; a 4.0M off the coast of Port Orford, Oregon on June 16; a swarm with a maximum 5.9M on Hawaii on June 17th, the Callie special of 5.1M off the coast of Eureka on June 24th.  No major quakes of 7+M have occurred since April 1st, although there were the following quakes of 6.0+M during last month:  June 3 (6.4M, Yunnan, China); June 12 (6.8M, Guatemala); June 15 (Solomon Is. 6.2M): June 18 (New Ireland, 6.1M); June 23 (So. Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 6.5M); June 26 (Java, 6.0M); and June 28 (Bougainville Is., 6.7M)  with only four quakes all year reaching 
 
 
PREDICTIONS FOR JULY
The Seismic Window of July 12-19, 2007 is based upon the New Moon of July 12th, a moderately close perigee (229,426 miles) on July 9th, with a synchroneity of 66 hours.  The maximum tidal range (8.2 ft.) until October will be found at the Golden Gate on July 13th.  At Puget Sound the maximum range of 15.4 ft. will occur on July 14th, the same day as the syzygy.   Almost always the highest tides are within three days of syzygy and are usually biased toward the time of perigee.  This month, with perigee three days early, it is surprising that the maximum tides also aren’t a little early.  However, ocean tides are often influenced by oscillations in the ocean basin, the blocking effects of continents, and other complexities.
On the other hand the solid earth tide usually reached a maximum directly under the new or full Moon, where the gravitational forces are at a maximum as the Earth rotates.  It is this tide, which, seems to be most effective in triggering earthquakes, and it can be applied at great distances from seacoasts.
Based upon these factors I am predicting with 75% confidence that there will be at least one quake in the following areas, during the July 12-19th Seismic Window, with the following parameters:
 
(1)     For Northern California within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo, I predict that there will be a 3.5-6.5M quake.
(2)      For Southern California within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 116.0W), I predict at least one quake of 3.5-6.5M.  I am still on record for predicting a 6.0+ in Southern California sometime this year, based on rainfall pattern, tidal factors and the long lapse of time since the last one.
(3)      For the Northwestern U.S.  I predict that there will be at least one earthquake of 3.5-.6.5M with an Oregon or Washington epicenter.
(4)     Globally, especially in the Pacific Ring of Fire I predict the long awaited return of a major earthquake.  Through the first six months this year we have seen only four quakes which have exceeded 7.0M.  If this seismic drought continues, we will have only 8 major quakes in 2007, rather than the long-term average of 15-16.  The record shows that the last time we had as few as 8 majors was in 1989, the year of the World Series Quake.
(5)      Encouraged by my hit last month for Central America, my non-scoring MOSS prediction (Monthly Outright Seismic Speculation) is that the July Seismic Window will include at least one 5.0+ magnitude quake in a country touching the Mediterranean Sea.
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