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October Earthquakes Print E-mail
Contributed by job   
Thursday, 15 October 2009
“There is no time like the present to start to remember the past.”………………JOB


F O R E S H O C K S

 

Hello Folks,

Welcome to the shaky month of October. I note that this issue’s number matches U-238. Not only is it one of the three most seismically active months of the year (along with March and April), it follows the autumnal equinox, a time of increased gravitational stresses. There is no better source for this information than the publication by oceanographer Fergus Wood in his masterwork, THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES (NOAA, 1978. [p. 150). He wrote:

 

“Thus, at times close to the equinoxes, the Sun and Moon are in almost the same declination plane (i.e., approximately 0-degrees) as the Earth’s Equator. When syzygy occurs near the dates of the equinoxes ---because of the nearly coplanar alignments in both declination and right ascension resulting---the Sun’s semidiurnal component of gravitational force will then add an extra 27 percent to the lunar force ((my emphasis) to provide a greater amplification of the Earth’s tides. The tides resulting are known as equinoctial tides.

 

Casual readers need not concern yourselves with the geometric details or unfamiliar terms, but focus on the bold type, which is most important.

 

I recall a front page article about 25 years ago in the San Jose MERCURY, in which a government geologist expounded on a March/April concentration of earthquakes in the Bay Area. The conclusion was that it was related to the end of the rainy season, which was an attractive hypothesis except it did not mention the equally potent earthquake month of October, which follows the dry season in California. It should be an obvious consideration that the vernal equinox in late March and the autumnal equinox in late September can better explain the boost in tidal forces associated with equinoxes, along with the fact that half of the damaging Bay Area quakes have occurred in just one-quarter of the time available (March/April/October.)

 

In the two weeks since the last equinox (Sept. 23rd) there has been a flurry of strong earthquakes, three with tsunami. (6.4M) Jalisco, Mexico: (8.0M) Samoa Islands: Sumatra (7.6, 6.8M): (6.1M) Tonga; (6.7M) Celebes Sea; (7.8M, 7.3M, 6.8M) Vanuatu; (7.7, 7.2, 6.9M) Santa Cruz Islands; All quakes were in the Pacific Ring of Fire and the expected number of major global events of 7+M would be one every 25 days, not five in 15 days. Let us continue to keep score.

LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES

The Seismic Window of September 16-23, 2009 was dependent upon the new Moon of September 18th, the close perigee two days later, and the highest tides of the month on September 16th. Also relevant was the heightened tidal forces from the autumnal equinox of September 22 although the main effect was slightly delayed until the end of September and early October, as described earlier in this issue.

 

During the critical days near the window here are the relevant earthquakes:

 

(1) Within the 140 mile radius around Mt. Diablo in Northern California there was a 3.4M quake near Willits on September 17th; (Score: .90) as it was 0.1M low; Also a 3.2M jolt shook Ukiah on September 14th, two days early and 0.3M low, for a score of 70x80x100 =56%).

Within the 140 mile radius around Mt. Diablo in Northern California there was a 3.4M quake near Willits on September 17; : . as it was 0.1M low; Also a 3.2M jolt shook Ukiah on September 14, two days early and 0.3M low, for a score of 70x80x100 =56%).

 

(2) Within 140 miles of Los Angeles a 3.2M tremor was centered near Brentwood on September13 for a score of .70x.70x1.00= .49.

 

(3) In Oregon a quake of 3.4M near the Washington border for a score of .90 during the October Window..

In Oregon a quake of 3.4M near the Washington border for a during the October Window..

 

(4) Nowhere was there a global earthquake that exceeded 6.4M during the Window. Thus there was no score for this prediction, despite the incidence of 4 major quakes and a great quake within the two weeks following the September Window and the equinox.

Nowhere was there a global earthquake that exceeded 6.4M during the Window. Thus there was for this prediction, despite the incidence of 4 major quakes and a great quake within the two weeks following the September Window and the equinox.

 

 

 

PREDICTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2009

The Primary Seismic window for October 16-23, 2009 is based mainly on the new Moon of October 17 (coincidentally the 20th anniversary of the “World Series Earthquake“, which had many precursory signals, contrary to the present situation.) The 7.0-ft. tides Oct. 23rd are rapidly increasing from the September lows and will culminate this year on December 31s, the day of a lunar eclipse. The New Years Eve tides at the Golden Gate will reach 8.4 ft. and at Puget Sound the daily range will be 15.1 ft.

In the absence of additional data I am predicting that at least one quake during the October Window will meet the following parameters:

(1) Within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo a quake of 3.5-6.5M

(2) Within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 116.0W) a quake of 3.5-6.5M

(3) With an epicenter located in Oregon or Washington, a quake of 3.5-6.0M

(4) Globally a major quake will occur of at least 7.0M. (Especially in the Pacific Ring of Fire, which have historically contained 80% of the largest earthquakes.

(8)

 

 

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