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June 20-27, 2009 Window + May results Print E-mail
Contributed by job   
Sunday, 14 June 2009
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES

The Seismic Window of May 23-30, 2009 began a 4-month series of Top Windows such as I have seldom seen. The June and July windows may produce spectacular seismicity, and I have mixed emotions about this summer of 2009. ( In my younger years my mid-year thoughts were mainly along the lines of summer employment, as well as getting a dark tan. Now, it is trying to avoid cancer, keeping off excess poundage along with new concerns about living through this American descent to a socialistic society, along with international thumping of nuclear drums.)

May 23-30, 2009 prediction results:

(1) For Northern California my hindsight view through a Seismic Window was that of a seismic desert. The last local quakes exceeding 3.0M were the 3.1M in Oakland on May 13 and the 3.3M near Morgan Hill on May 5th Thus, my prediction scored 00%
(2) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but scored 100%. Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19th. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23rd was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.

) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but . Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23 was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.
(3) The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26th, scoring 100%. No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.

The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26, . No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.
(4) My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28th off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19th in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake scored 100% for time, place and magnitude.

My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28 off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19 in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake for time, place and magnitude.
(5) My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a 3.0 on May 18th, barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M).

My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a , barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M).
During the May window there were also small quakes of 3.0M near Ottawa, Canada and in Nevada; in addition, a 3.7M shook Cutbank, Montana. My May summary score was 00 +100 +100+100 = 300 / 4 = 75% my long term average.

 

PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 20-27, 2009. Because of near-record tides I have 85% confidence in (1) One or more events of 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo, and (2) within 140 miles of Los Angeles, and (3) with an epicenter naming Oregon or Washington. Also predicted: (4) a major quake of 7.0+M globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the largest earthquakes have been located.

(8)

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